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Coming into tonight's game against the Mariners, the Tigers offense was one of only 10 MLB teams to hit the 100 run mark. The teams wOBA of .319 is also a respectable 13th out of all MLB teams. Is this sustainable? Can we expect the Tigers to rise, fall, or sit where they are now?
Let's start with the most obvious statement of all. Miguel Cabrera is the best player on this team, and probably one of the 3 or 4 best hitters in the world right now. While his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is way over MLB average at .344, this is also right in line with his normal ability. He has actually been BETTER than his amazing 2010 season, producing a .450 wOBA. It appears that he has taken another step forward in a way that is sustainable. This is good news.
The next two most valuable players are young lefty batters Brennan Boesch and Alex Avila. Avila has started to display the power he had during his minor league career. However, his BABIP currently sits at .393. Most MLB hitters fall into the .290 to .310 range in BABIP, regardless of how talented they are. (Albert Pujols is at .313 for his career). Boesch has a likewise unusually high BABIP so far. Since these have been two of the team's three best hitters, this might be a problem somewhere in the future when those batted balls stop finding holes and the players start regressing towards the mean.
Of course , the Tigers are experiencing their share of bad luck so far too. Ordonez (.214 BABIP), Inge (.250), Martinez (.260), and Rhymes (.233) should all expect to start getting a few more breaks on their batted balls going forward. This should help make up for Boesch and Avila's eventual slow downs.
Ryan Raburn is the most curious case of all. His BABIP currently sits at .356. His career average is higher than a usual player (.331) meaning he shouldn't slow TOO much. But he is also striking out 10 percent more than normal, so he might actually get better if that rate starts trending towards normal. (Don't read too much into strikeouts, though. There is not a huge relationship between strikeouts and producing runs. In fact, if you click that link, you might find out some pretty surprising things about strike out relationships.)
As for Jhonny Peralta, he sports a .295 BABIP to go with a .311 wOBA. He might be due to improve ever so slightly. He is, however, mostly what he is showing now. A completely average MLB shortstop. What more can you ask after that last SS we had.
Overall, the Tigers have had one of the better offenses in all of baseball dating back to 2006. It appears to be a pretty good offense again this year not even accounting that it appears that a lot of the team's options stand to improve as we progress into summer.
I will re-visit this topic throughout the summer to see if the hitters
who have started out high trend towards normal and vice-versa. Keep in mind that it often takes nearly 550 or so plate appearances for stats to correct themselves, so it's also entirely possible that these players don't follow the normal rules of baseball for a season.
Soon, I will take a look at pitching and defense, so keep an eye open for that discussion.
Finally, it is SHARK HATE WEEK here at the Daily Derelict. To hell with the Blackhawks. ENJOY YOUR OFFSEASON WHILE WE PLAY THE SHARKS JERKS!
Let's start with the most obvious statement of all. Miguel Cabrera is the best player on this team, and probably one of the 3 or 4 best hitters in the world right now. While his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is way over MLB average at .344, this is also right in line with his normal ability. He has actually been BETTER than his amazing 2010 season, producing a .450 wOBA. It appears that he has taken another step forward in a way that is sustainable. This is good news.
The next two most valuable players are young lefty batters Brennan Boesch and Alex Avila. Avila has started to display the power he had during his minor league career. However, his BABIP currently sits at .393. Most MLB hitters fall into the .290 to .310 range in BABIP, regardless of how talented they are. (Albert Pujols is at .313 for his career). Boesch has a likewise unusually high BABIP so far. Since these have been two of the team's three best hitters, this might be a problem somewhere in the future when those batted balls stop finding holes and the players start regressing towards the mean.
Of course , the Tigers are experiencing their share of bad luck so far too. Ordonez (.214 BABIP), Inge (.250), Martinez (.260), and Rhymes (.233) should all expect to start getting a few more breaks on their batted balls going forward. This should help make up for Boesch and Avila's eventual slow downs.
Ryan Raburn is the most curious case of all. His BABIP currently sits at .356. His career average is higher than a usual player (.331) meaning he shouldn't slow TOO much. But he is also striking out 10 percent more than normal, so he might actually get better if that rate starts trending towards normal. (Don't read too much into strikeouts, though. There is not a huge relationship between strikeouts and producing runs. In fact, if you click that link, you might find out some pretty surprising things about strike out relationships.)
As for Jhonny Peralta, he sports a .295 BABIP to go with a .311 wOBA. He might be due to improve ever so slightly. He is, however, mostly what he is showing now. A completely average MLB shortstop. What more can you ask after that last SS we had.
Overall, the Tigers have had one of the better offenses in all of baseball dating back to 2006. It appears to be a pretty good offense again this year not even accounting that it appears that a lot of the team's options stand to improve as we progress into summer.
I will re-visit this topic throughout the summer to see if the hitters
who have started out high trend towards normal and vice-versa. Keep in mind that it often takes nearly 550 or so plate appearances for stats to correct themselves, so it's also entirely possible that these players don't follow the normal rules of baseball for a season.Soon, I will take a look at pitching and defense, so keep an eye open for that discussion.
Finally, it is SHARK HATE WEEK here at the Daily Derelict. To hell with the Blackhawks. ENJOY YOUR OFFSEASON WHILE WE PLAY THE SHARKS JERKS!