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PremiumWith their loss yesterday, the Cleveland Indians have fallen to 23-13, giving them a four game advantage over our Tigers. However, is the Tribe for real this season, or just playing above their abilities? Let’s get to the advanced stats to try and find the answer. (I have provided several links if you are curious about what some of these stats are and why they are important, as well as links to the players mentioned)
So far this season, the Indians rank 6th out of 30 MLB teams with a wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .334.
While this is a very good measure of how their offense has performed, it might not be the greatest predictor of things to come. Let’s dive into their offense now.
Grady Sizemore has provided the club with a real shot in the arm since returning from injury. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) falls in line with MLB averages, indicating he isn’t getting any luck. His ISO rating (isolated power, which subtracts singles from the equation) indicates he is hitting for 
Travis Hafner has performed well for the Tribe as well, but his BABIP is a pretty unsustainable .405. His power is down a bit for him, but that could also be a product of age. Look for him to regress.
Michael Brantley has provided a nice bat for Cleveland as well and all the indicators suggest he is playing at the level he is capable of. Other nice hitters such as Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta also seem likely to keep up their current level of performance.
Other players such as Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana have been experiencing a lot of bad luck on batted balls so far this season. They both have BABIP’s of below .260. They should cancel out the eventual regression of Sizemore’s power and Hafner’s batted ball luck.
Overall, what you see from this current Tribe offense is probably pretty real. There is a mixture of nice veteran hitters and rising young hitters who are finally breaking through.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Justin Masterson has experienced a lot of success so far. He has a nice arm and his FIP (fielder independent fielding) suggests he’s pitched well. His xFIP (which is FIP that adjusts HR/FB levels to normal rates) does indicate he should experience some drop off, however.
Fausto Carmona (3.83 ERA, 3.53 FIP, .272 BABIP) is probably pitching to his natural ability level at the moment.
A lot of the pitching success thus far is due to Josh Tomlin (4-1, 2.70 ERA). However, he sports an FIP of 4.70 and his BABIP of .170 suggests an unsustainable level of pitching.
Outside of those three (of who I have projected 2 drop-offs), the Indians have shuffled four pitchers into the other two rotation slots. (Including Carlos Carassco who has pitched better than his ERA would seem to indicate).
While I’m betting on the hitters to keep up their pace for the Indians, I would bet money that those pitchers are going to start slowing down soon, though maybe not by much.
The Tribe have also put together a really solid back to their bullpen behind the Perez’s, Chris and Rafael.
The biggest concern, to me, about the Indians as a whole is the overall experience level. How will they hold up in a divisional race as the summer heats up and they start logging a lot of high pressure innings and at-bats. While the stats suggest that the current level of performance of the Tribe isn't neccessarily a fluke, one might wonder how long they can keep it up given the youth on the club.
In addition, Baseball Prospectus projects the Indians as a 25.2 percent favorite to win the Central. The Tigers lead the way at 49.8 percent. (The White Sox and Twins combine with a 23.9 percent chance, followed by the Royals at under 1 percent).
Going forward, I think I would be happy as a Tigers fan to be chasing Cleveland rather than Minnesota or Chicago this season (teams who appear to have put themselves in HUGE holes). But make no mistake, the Indians are going to be a tough challenge to take down.
