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This is the Derelictable College Football Top 25. This is exactly how the Top 25 will look at the end of the season. We swear. Today's entry: No. 23 USC.
When I put USC at No. 23 and started preparing to write this post, I did under the impression that Matt Barkley missed a decent amount of time last year, hence the 8-5 record. Well, turns out Barkley only missed one whole game (Notre Dame) and missed a good chunk of another (Oregon State). He took the majority of the rest of the snaps last season for the Trojans. Sure, had he played, there's a decent chance the Trojans might have been able to beat Notre Dame. Mitch Mustain was not very good that day, and the Trojans lost by just four points, but it was rainy and miserable in that one, too. The Oregon State game wouldn't have mattered at all. The Trojans were spanked in that one.
So what makes me think a team that was talented but poorly coached and conditioned last year, lost three starters on the offensive line and is still facing scholarship restrictions will show enough improvement this year to jump back into the Top 25? Schedule. Well, that and the amount of talent that's still in Los Angeles.
The Trojans get the privilege of playing this season in the PAC-12 South, a league that barely rivals the Mountain West that new member Utah is coming from. Also, seven home games for the Trojans, all of which are winnable. That's good, because four of the five road games could be losses.
Why they could be lower: I think I mentioned some of the problems with this team earlier, but I think the biggest issue would be attrition. Every team in the NCAA will face some form of it, but because of the NCAA scholarship limits the Trojans are dealing with, they are more susceptible to it than most others. Not only is USC projected to start three new offensive lineman this year (two of them sophomores), but there are two freshmen on the two-deep. Two of the three projected second-string linebacker spots are also filled by freshmen. And the aforementioned Barkley, who has an injury history and will be playing behind this patch-work offensive line? He's backed up by a freshman.
Yes, all of these freshmen are talented, but it's rare for multiple freshman to come in and make an immediate impact for a team, especially on the offensive line and the front seven.
Why they could be higher: Barkley has one hell of a group of offensive weapons at his disposal. Sophomore receiver Robert Woods is electric, and will not only move into the void left by Ronald Johnson, but should wind up being better, maybe this year. Freshmen George Farmer and Kyle Prater (redshirt) make the receiving core incredibly dangerous, even if it's incredibly inexperienced. And don't sleep on running back Marc Tyler. He's not the game-breaking type the Trojans have had with Reggie Bush and Joe McKnight, but his combination of size and speed will do well to keep defenses honest and give those talented receivers some room to roam. As for the defense, it was bad last year (400.1 ypg allowed), but it does return eight players who saw time as starters, and in Year 2 of Monte Kiffin's defense, you'd think they'll be better.
Schedule: As mentioned, the Trojans get a break because of their conference schedule. The only PAC-12 South loss I would project for them is Arizona State, and that's really only because I'm in love with Vontaze Burfict and am probably severely overrating the Sun Devils. The nonconference schedule is more challenging than most schools, as the Trojans remain one of three schools (along with UCLA and Notre Dame) that do not play FCS opponents. The three nonconference opponents (Minnesota, Syracuse and Notre Dame) are all BCS opponents, even if the first two don't really project to be all that difficult to deal with. Arizona and Stanford could be tough home games, but I'm not incredibly enamored with either of these teams. The other nice part about USC's schedule is that the tough games aren't all bunched together like Michigan State's schedule. Sure, they get ASU and Arizona back-to-back, as well as Notre Dame and Stanford, but the back end of those are both at home. This looks like a 9-4 type season for the Trojans (playing 13 games during the bowl-banned years, by the way, is brilliant).
