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This is the Derelictable College Football Top 25. This is exactly how the Top 25 will look at the end of the season. We swear. Today's entry: No. 25 Michigan State.
When we last left the Michigan State Spartans, they were getting curb-stomped by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl. It wasn't a pretty way to go out, but there were two realizations I came to thanks to that game: 1. We realized the Spartans weren't as good as their 11-1 regular-season record indicated; 2. Michigan State fans I talked to seemed to realize this as soon as the matchup was announced.
I'm trying to balance these two things with the fact bowl games are often overrated when looking at how it will impact next season. Is Michigan State among the elite teams in the country? No, and it's not even close. But I think we knew that. But the Spartans are definitely trending toward being a consistent Top 25 team, which hasn't happened since the 1950s.
The last time Michigan State finished in the Top 25 in consecutive years was 1989-90. But under Mark Dantonio, the Spartans have played in four straight bowl games for the first time since then. Yes, they've lost all of those, but that probably has more to do with the fact the Big Ten isn't as good as its bowl game tie-ins and its teams often wind up playing against SEC teams or higher-placing teams from other conferences (I'm not excusing the Big Ten from bad bowl performances, by the way. Just because this is happening doesn't mean it should be).
This is a long-winded way of saying this: Michigan State still isn't a top 15 team, but it's not the same Michigan State Kirk Herbstreit called out in the 2006 collapse against Notre Dame. They're on the verge of being a consistently tough team.
Why they could be lower: Really, I probably have Michigan State lower than any preseason/prediction poll you'll see, but I think the only way they're lower than this would be if that inconsistency creeps back in. The offensive line is losing three starters, which will be tough for a team that ran the ball as well as Michigan State did last year. Also, the Spartans were 4-0 in tight games last year. That's always a good thing, and especially for Michigan State fans, but that's hard to duplicate in college football. If Michigan State was coming off a 7-6 season as opposed to an 11-2 one, I'm not writing about them at all in this countdown.
Why the could be higher: Kirk Cousins. Experience at the quarterback position is huge, and it's going to be amazingly huge for the Spartans this year considering the offensive-line turnover. Even with Russell Wilson transferring into the league, Cousins is the best quarterback in the Big Ten (sorry, Michigan fans, until Denard can get past the first read, it's not him). Add in Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell both being back, and we might barely notice the new offensive linemen. Oh yeah, there's also this Keshawn Martin guy who is a truly explosive player, and could become one of the country's best playmakers.
Schedule: MSU's schedule -- outside of the early cupcakes -- is incredibly front-loaded. Notre Dame (week 3), Ohio State (week 5), Michigan (week 7), Wisconsin (week 8) and Nebraska (week 9) all come before November. That's five potential losses, with games at Iowa and Northwestern still on the schedule. Michigan State has never been known for mental toughness, and starting the season 3-5 could (and would) be disastrous. I don't think that will happen, but I do think the Spartans go 2-3 in that stretch, and finish the regular season 8-4. This time, they'll win a bowl game, and sneak into the final Top 25 at 9-4.
