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Coming into the 2011 season, many people were questioning Rick Porcello's spot in the rotation, citing a concern that he regressed from his rookie season. I'm about to explain why he not only didn't regress in 2010, he actually showed signs of improvement. (Once again, I have provided some relevant links for those who care to dip into them)
To begin, yes I realize that his ERA shot up from 3.96 to 4.92 last season. However, ERA is, as I've mentioned before, a very poor predictor of future performance.
Porcello was able to improve his FIP from 4.77 as a rookie to 4.31 last year. That's a pretty significant improvement. In addition, his xFIP went from 4.27 to 4.24. Now, xFIP adjusts your performance on HR/FB (homers per fly ball) to the MLB average because home run rates are very random. Sure enough, his rate in 2009 of 14.1 percent dropped to a more reasonable number of 9.9.
This is why his expected FIP is nearly identical between his first two years. He gave up an unusually high rate of HRs as a rookie and improved that number last year.
Also from 2009 to 2010, Porcello was able to maintain his K rate and improve his base on balls rate.
So why the increase in ERA? Simple. Porcello's left on base rate went from a solid 75.5 percent in 2009 to an extremely low (and very likely unlucky) 65.9 percent in 2010. This season, that number has gone back up, all the way to 78.7 percent. As a result, Porcello's 2011 ERA has dipped down to 3.67.
In addition, he has made tremendous strides in K rate (a career-best 5.83/9 innings), FIP (3.75) and xFIP (3.66). In short, he has performed in 2011 exactly as his peripheral numbers suggest he should.
Can he keep up this current pace? While that remains to be seen, Erik Hahmann at FanGraphs.com gives a reason why he thinks Porcello has made the big leap.
"He also looks to have made a significant change in his approach, relying less on his fastball and throwing his changeup 16.4% of the time, up from 9.4% the past two seasons," Hahmann wrote on May 12. "Although I wouldn’t put much stock into pitch type values early in a season, or even late in a season because they are influenced so much by the defense, his changeup currently is highest rated pitch. That may be the reason for his increased swinging strike percentage and K/9. He is only 22, and looks to be improving."
The bottom line is Porcello has gotten better in each of his MLB seasons, and appears to have made his biggest strides yet this season.
To begin, yes I realize that his ERA shot up from 3.96 to 4.92 last season. However, ERA is, as I've mentioned before, a very poor predictor of future performance.
Porcello was able to improve his FIP from 4.77 as a rookie to 4.31 last year. That's a pretty significant improvement. In addition, his xFIP went from 4.27 to 4.24. Now, xFIP adjusts your performance on HR/FB (homers per fly ball) to the MLB average because home run rates are very random. Sure enough, his rate in 2009 of 14.1 percent dropped to a more reasonable number of 9.9.
This is why his expected FIP is nearly identical between his first two years. He gave up an unusually high rate of HRs as a rookie and improved that number last year.
Also from 2009 to 2010, Porcello was able to maintain his K rate and improve his base on balls rate.
So why the increase in ERA? Simple. Porcello's left on base rate went from a solid 75.5 percent in 2009 to an extremely low (and very likely unlucky) 65.9 percent in 2010. This season, that number has gone back up, all the way to 78.7 percent. As a result, Porcello's 2011 ERA has dipped down to 3.67.
In addition, he has made tremendous strides in K rate (a career-best 5.83/9 innings), FIP (3.75) and xFIP (3.66). In short, he has performed in 2011 exactly as his peripheral numbers suggest he should.
Can he keep up this current pace? While that remains to be seen, Erik Hahmann at FanGraphs.com gives a reason why he thinks Porcello has made the big leap.
"He also looks to have made a significant change in his approach, relying less on his fastball and throwing his changeup 16.4% of the time, up from 9.4% the past two seasons," Hahmann wrote on May 12. "Although I wouldn’t put much stock into pitch type values early in a season, or even late in a season because they are influenced so much by the defense, his changeup currently is highest rated pitch. That may be the reason for his increased swinging strike percentage and K/9. He is only 22, and looks to be improving."
The bottom line is Porcello has gotten better in each of his MLB seasons, and appears to have made his biggest strides yet this season.
